Synopsis: Carotid endarterectomy (CEA) is the cornerstone treatment of carotid atherosclerotic disease. The most recent guidelines from the Society of Vascular Surgery recommend CEA for symptomatic patients with 50% to 99% internal carotid artery (ICA) stenosis, and asymptomatic patients with 60 to 99% stenosis as long as the perioperative stroke and death rate is less than 3% and the patient’s life expectancy is at least 3 to 5 years. The evidence supporting these guidelines stems from randomized clinical trials dated back to the 1990’s and early 2000’s.
In the absence of more recent trials, the management of asymptomatic carotid disease has become somewhat controversial as the long-term risk of stroke is much lower in asymptomatic patients and it is thought that the natural history of asymptomatic carotid stenosis is improving with recent advances in medical therapy (such as high potency statins, improved antiplatelet regimens, and better blood pressure and diabetes control).
“Comparative Effectiveness of Carotid Endarterectomy vs Initial Medical Therapy in Patients With Asymptomatic Carotid Stenosis”, published in JAMA Neurology in June 2020, was a retrospective comparative effectiveness study that utilized numerous databases from the Veterans Affairs (VA) between 2005 and 2009 to assess the 5-year stroke rate in patients older than 65, with asymptomatic carotid stenosis (at least 70% on duplex ultrasound) undergoing CEA vs medical therapy (MT). Kaplan-Meier (KM) curves were used to estimate the 5-year risk of fatal and non-fatal strokes, and statistical analysis was performed after constraining the sample to patients who met the strict inclusion/exclusion criteria of the most recent RCT comparing medical therapy to CEA in asymptomatic carotid disease (ACST – Asymptomatic Carotid Stenosis Trial). The authors used an advanced analytic approach, the target trial method, to simulate an RCT, where they randomized patients to one of the 2 treatment cohorts regardless of what treatment (surgical vs medical) the patient actually received. The patient whose actual treatment did not match the randomized treatment was censored on the actual treatment day. They also performed another analysis where they compared patients simply based on the actual treatment received.
The pragmatic sample consisted of 5221 patients with asymptomatic carotid stenosis >70%, which comprised of 2,712 patients who underwent CEA and a propensity score matched sample of 2509 patients who received MT. The RCT-like sample comprised of 2012 patients receiving CEA and 1890 receiving medical therapy. The perioperative risk of stroke or death with CEA was 2.5%. In the pragmatic sample, the 5-year risk of stroke was 5.6% and 7.8% in the CEA and MT cohorts, respectively, which was statistically significant. When the competing risk of death (deaths due to causes other than stroke) was accounted for, the 5-year risk of stroke was 5.4% vs 6.2% which was not statistically significant. The results for the RCT-like sample with stricter inclusion criteria were similar (5.5% vs 7.6% in CEA vs MT, which was significant; after taking into account competing risk of death, 5-year stroke risk was 5.3% vs 6.2%, not significant). The 5-year risk difference in stroke was 2.3% (to the favor of CEA) in this study, which is half what was reported in prior carotid revascularization RCT’s.
This study suggests the medical therapy may be an acceptable alternative for the treatment of high-grade carotid stenosis in asymptomatic patients, given the perioperative risks and reduced long-term benefit with CEA. This study uses advanced statistical methods to simulate an RCT, an innovative strategy that may pave the way for future studies and can mitigate the cost and organizational challenges associated with performing a “true” RCT. There is no doubt that recent advances in medical therapy have improved cardiovascular outcomes, but there remains no level I evidence to suggest that the risk of CEA outweigh the benefits in asymptomatic patients with high grade carotid stenosis. We hope that the results of the CREST 2 trial (Carotid Revascularization and Medical Management for Asymptomatic Carotid Stenosis Trial), an ongoing RCT, provides more insight into the latter question.